Geopolitics-Pakistan caught in Superpower game
We have won round one, all credit to our forces and Prime Minister Imran Khan who have worked as a team. But let me tell you that this was the easy bit. The tough part is yet to come. I would try to be brief on giving background and what to expect next.
Let me start by saying that there are no morals, no legality and no humanity involved in the power games played among the nation states. Please get rid of any such ideas from your mind. I am sure that our establishment eminently headed by Prime Minister Imran Khan fully understand this dimension of the game that they have been inadvertently caught in. I take great ‘humane’ gestures of Imran Khan like releasing of the pilot, merely as a tool to divide public opinion in India and in the west (America and Europe). This divided public opinion will only create some problems for the US-India axis but will not and I say it again, will not deter this Indo-US axis from the strategic aims they inked well before Trump presidency.
In my reckoning this war came at a time not suitable for Pakistan-China and not suitable for India-US, either. I will elaborate on it later after throwing some light on the background. The matter of timing reminds me one famous quote of Leon Trotsky that “You may not be interested in War, but War is interested in you’.
First the background in brief. America has been following a policy called Monroe Doctrine of Super Power hegemony for the last 100 years and there has never been a slight let up from this doctrine. In geopolitical science they say that America has always acted like a most brutal robot to enforce this doctrine. This doctrine involves zero tolerance for any outside power influence in the western hemisphere which is the American Continent. The next principle in American Super Power policy is to not let any power to grow to become a regional hegemon in the Eurasian continent. The first challenge to this second element came from USSR which America dealt with by cobbling down a balancing alliance of NATO. Now America is facing a second challenge from China. The Balancing Alliance for China includes India and Japan as major linchpins along with minor players like Australia, Taiwan and others. US and India signed a strategic agreement in Obama’s period. Since that time America and all western powers have accorded India the status of Rising Regional Super Power. I’m sure most of you have heard these keywords (Rising Super Power) from the barking Indian Generals on Indian Channels. If US fails India in this present hour of need, the strategic alliance agreement would fall on its face, denting American reputation as the Super Power in a big way. Hence it is the first test of that strategic treaty between the two countries.
Now the Dynamics emanating from this background: For India to be the regional hegemony, India needs to have a sphere of influence with no challenging peer power short of China. Pakistan is the odd country out whose defensive power (Armed forces and Nuclear arsenal) doesn’t match up with the socio-economic power. Notwithstanding any semantics or moralities, it is imperative for America that India comes out on top in this first Indian test since getting the status of ‘Rising Superpower’. Next question that arises here is the apparent Chinese ambivalence in the current scenario. China fully understands this matrix but still want to try to take India out of this American cobbled Containment Alliance for China. The secondary Chinese objective is to bring Pakistan into her sole area of influence which Pakistan has resisted thus far (and rightly so) for multitude of reasons.
What I expect or Predict: India is riding a historic moment to justify her role as a regional hegemony at par with China. India is being fully assisted by US-Israeli technology. India is not going to budge from convincingly punish Pakistan. This is a moment of make or break for India (as a regional Hegemony). To bring on major punishing offensive against Pakistan, India needs time for two reasons; 1. logistics and support from within and abroad 2. punish Pakistanis economy by keeping in war phase. The good noises emanating from USA or the Europe are to this effect. So my prediction is no matter what we do, we must expect war, in Leo Trotsky’s narrative, War is interested in us , we may like it or not.