Economic Collapse of Pakistan is the Military Objective of India
The decline of Pakistan’s economy and running down of state run enterprises and institutions is by design; it is being engineered by its rulers
Zardari-Gilani regime has rejected US threats to stop Iran-Pakistan gas pipeline. Is the defiance motivated by national interests? Or, is there a sinister design at work. They did not show firmness to deal with totally avoidable shortage of electricity where they did not face any external pressure! In the four years of their rule, Pakistan’s agriculture and industry have been made uncompetitive; free trade with India at this time would flood the Pakistani market with imports. Why is the PPP-ANP-MQM Government so eager to sign agreements with India for free trade when the USA is threatening to impose economic sanctions on Pakistan? I smell a rat. Is Pakistan being set up for economic collapse and prepared for falling into the lap of India?
The present ruling coalition of PPP, ANP, and MQM was put together in April 2008 after the PPP-PML(N) coalition collapsed after six weeks when the PPP Chairman – Asif Zardari – broke his promise to restore the judges removed from office by General Musharraf. The present coalition has been in power for nearly four years during which it has presided over rapid decline of the economy, erosion of the writ of the government particularly in Karachi. FATA and KPK, and increase in blatant corruption by ministers – in fact all politicians. The narrative for what is unfolding in Pakistan was written in the USA in what is known as the NRO (National Reconciliation Ordinance). The analysis of the narrative was outlined in a paper titled ‘Destabilisation of Pakistan’ by Professor Michel Chossudovsky of Global Research, Toronto, early in 2008.
Professor Chossudovsky wrote that the USA has installed a government in Pakistan that does not care about the national interest and would pursue the agenda given to it without relent. The objective of the US sponsored regime change early in 2008 was to bring about the failure of Pakistan a state and its eventual balkanisation or disintegration. This was to be achieved by:
1. Assassination of Benazir Bhutto.
2. Political impasse created by ‘Constitutional amendments’ introducing such provisions of provincial autonomy and financial control that failure of governance became inevitable.
3. Creating such bottlenecks that made the tapping of oil & gas and minerals creating scarcities and increasing prices.
4. Increase in the prices of food and agricultural commodities to levels that urban unemployment and unrest is exacerbated.
5. Covert support Baluchistan separatists; even drawing a new map of the Middle East as visualised by US planners. (below)
It can be seen that the USA wishes the balkanisation of not just Pakistan but the entire Middle East. ButtThe prescription of the West for itself is more unity and creation of the European Union and NAFTA etc. While the Pakistanis were worrying about America’s plans, India had different ideas. The Indian planners do see benefit in balkanisation of Pakistan but they think that India cannot win a war against Pakistan. A conventional war could well result in Pakistan securing control over Jammu and Kashmir and escalation to nuclear war could bring about total devastation. India has chosen the path of using the economic instrument to secure the destruction of Pakistan. After all, the decline and collapse of the erstwhile Soviet Union was brought about without firing a shot entirely by the use of subversion and economic instruments.
India prepared the ground for its new plans under Musharraf rule, who agreed to put the issue of self-determination in Kashmir on the back burner. The assassination of Benazir Bhutto provided India the opportunity to test the prowess of their surrogates – the MQM and Sindhi Nationalists. The speed with which they reacted and attacked the railway system, petrol pumps owned by Punjabi abadkars and carefully selected industrial targets, showed careful prior planning. The rail link between Karachi and up-country was closed for a week, more than fifty railway engines and countless bogies were burnt in that week. To build on that, President Zardari gave the task of making the system dysfunctional to Indian surrogate – ANP – who appointed an ‘appropriate’ Minister to deliver the decline and fall of the railways. That one week was a full dress rehearsal of things to come. But what is infinitely more damaging is that it resulted in an unscrupulous person becoming the unpopular leader of the country of 180 million people which is nuclear power. India does not directly give orders to President Asif Zardari but India can depend on his well -known pro-India views and the inclusion two surrogates of India – the MQM and the ANP- in the ruling coalition for its agenda to imposed.
Zardari-Gilani regime has done more to advance India’s agenda to bring about the economic collapse of Pakistan than India could ever hope or even dream. In pursuit of a drastic plan the regime has undertaken the following measures to create social unrest and economic break-down:
1. The support price of wheat was doubled to Rupees 950 per 40 kg. That stopped smuggling of wheat creating stocks that could not be sold at that price, creating a debt burden on the state of 500 billion rupees and raised price of all agricultural commodities which use the wheat price as the benchmark.
2. Rupee was devalued from 60 rupees to a Dollar to 95 rupees thus creating another pressure point to create runaway inflation.
3. Budget deficit rose to about 6% of the GDP forcing the printing of paper currency to the tune of 2 billion rupees per day further exacerbating inflation.
4. Appointing corrupt cronies to state enterprises including the Railways, PIA, Steel Mills, PEPCO, OGDC and other oil/gas companies, and many other only to get cuts and commissions which increased the state sector losses to more than 800 billion rupees per year which have been met by printing notes.
5. Extensive load shedding of electricity on the absurd excuse of ‘circular debt’ even though the installed capacity is more than the demand. While the state gives subsidy ostensibly to low consumers the price of electricity – despite being intermittent - has nearly doubled in the last four years. This has led to increase in production costs of the industry, closure of factories and lay-off of workers. This has created social unrest particularly in urban areas.
6. Extensive load shedding of gas even though it could have been surplus to need if the new gas field in at Tal in KPK and Zain in Baluchistan had been developed with speed, and legal dispute that stopped work on two other gas field had been resolved. Moreover, the government imposed gas load shedding on the industrial – not domestic – consumers, whereas households can cope with shortage much more easily. Clearly, it was the intent of the Zardari-Gilani Administration to hit the industry, particularly the textile industry in the Punjab, causing closures, lay-offs and escalation of costs.
7. While the prices have rocketed in Pakistan, India’s Commerce Minister walked in with a trade agreement that would abolish the negative list by the end of 2012 and disallow imposition of import duty higher than 5%.
The press and the public were elaborately distracted by Senate Elections, Contempt of Court proceedings against the Prime Minister, and Memo Gate treachery, when agreement for ‘free trade with India’ was being signed. The USA also weighed in with a ‘threat of sanctions’ if Pakistan went ahead with its plan to build a gas pipe line to link with Iran.
Zardari-Gilani Administration has been striving for four years to create production constraints and such high prices that agriculture as well as industry of Pakistan is internationally uncompetitive. At this time under the terms agreed everything from India would be cheaper. India would flood the Pakistani market with its shoddy goods it cannot sell elsewhere at any price. Economic sanctions by the USA when Pakistan is isolated by its foreign policy and its economy is on its knees, is a carefully crafted scenario to make Pakistan surrender.
I do not wish to end on such a pessimistic note. As my friend Orya Maqbool Jan said in Shahidnama on Express TV on Sunday 2 March, the dire scenario is altogether possible but there is a Greater Power about which we say: man proposes; God disposes. At this moment, we can observe the atrophy of all the idols we have worshipped: 1) the trust in the political class to deliver governance has evaporated; 2) the Army is no longer seen as the saviours; 3) the Judiciary appears powerless to implement its decisions, and now 4) even trust in the media is collapsing as it supports Army action in Swat but condemns it in Baluch areas. The people already know they have no guide or guidance; they have to guide themselves. Zardari-Gilani regime would come to a sorry and abrupt end very soon. One hopes that the new architects read the narrative written for Pakistan by India and America. There are gaping holes in their narrative. Their success if far from being inevitable. There is enough wisdom and executive ability among Pakistanis. Would by luck and chance it came to the fore and Pakistan does not only avoid balkanisation and economic collapse but goes on to defeat traitors, conspirators and subversives who have all been exposed and identified. ++